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Bullish Tesla Analyst On What To Expect At Musk's Robotaxi Day
After Tesla (TSLA) stock got a pop following news of the company's latest autonomous milestones, one prominent Tesla analyst peered into the crystal ball to see what Tesla intends to do next with robotaxis.
In a note published Thursday night, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas offered up what investors might expect at Tesla's upcoming robotaxi day, scheduled for Oct. 10 and set to take place at Warner Brothers Studios in Burbank, Calif.
Jonas reiterated that the firm is still bullish long-term on Tesla — the bank named the EV maker its "top pick" in the auto space — but admits clients need to "keep expectations well managed" for the event.
"What is our guess of what to expect here? A demonstration of the latest iteration of FSD [full self-driving] (version 12.5 or later) and a demonstration of a fully-autonomous 'cyber-cab' in what we expect to be a closed/semi-closed course," Jonas wrote.
While the reveal of the robotaxi, or "cyber-cab," as Jonas calls it, is expected, what could be surprising is what else investors might see. Jonas predicts that engineers and designers might "show off a few other things," given the extra time they gained when Musk pushed back the robotaxi reveal from August.
"Could we see an electric plane? A boat? The latest gen Optimus robot flipping burgers at a Tesla Diner?" Jonas asked. Tesla has been known to show off unrelated products or initiatives at its special events (who can forget the dancing "Optimus" robot at its first AI day?), with the aim to wow investors, boost marketing, and even aid in recruitment.
But the main focus for Tesla, and Jonas's long-term bull thesis for Tesla, surrounds initiatives like self-driving and robotaxis, ostensibly
Earlier this week, Tesla revealed its latest AI milestone roadmap, with targeted dates of FSD deployments in the European Union and China in Q1 of 2025, pending regulatory approval. Tesla shares initially popped on the news, though they pared those gains on Friday.
Acquiring regulatory approval could be a big sticking point for Tesla, which isn't operating FSD in a test capacity yet in Europe but is doing some limited FSD testing in Shanghai.
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With regard to robotaxis, rivals such as Alphabet's Waymo and GM's Cruise are already doing tests and rideshare pickups in certain cities, including San Francisco, Phoenix, and Dallas.
Tesla's permits in the US for robotaxi testing are limited too. Jonas notes that according to the California DMV, Tesla has permits for autonomous vehicle testing "with a driver," but does not currently hold a permit for autonomous vehicle testing or deployment without a driver.
Nevertheless, investors may hear more about those permits and test sites during Tesla's Oct. 10 event, which will be crucial for Tesla bulls like Jonas building their case for the stock.
Jonas and Morgan Stanley currently have an Overweight rating and "top pick" designation for Tesla, with a $310 price target.
Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.
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Elon Musk's Tesla Robots Could Be Innovative For AI And Automation, But Optimus Still Has A Long Way To Go
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By clicking "Sign Up", you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email.In 2021, Elon Musk announced a Tesla humanoid robot named Optimus. It is designed to help reduce the labor shortage, according to Musk, and keep workers safer. This could very well be groundbreaking, however, it still has a long way to go before it is ready for production and available for purchase.
Based on earlier reports, it appears that Optimus will stand in at 5'8" and weigh 125 pounds. It'll be able to deadlift more than its entire bodyweight and carry 45 pounds at 5 miles per hour. Noting its maximum lift strength and speed, Musk stated that the limitations weren't a mistake and were deliberately designed at the physical level, jokingly telling YouTube viewers that "you can run away from it and most likely overpower it" by design.
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. Have an account? Log in.While some could see these physical limitations as a downside, this could help assuage fears that the public might have from watching films like those of the Terminator series and other works of fiction where robots take over the world. However, there will certainly be applications where having a robot carrying significantly more weight would be useful, for example.
Musk has said that the goal behind the creation of this robot is to take over menial and dangerous tasks from human workers, which would improve safety. Noting his support for a future minimum basic income, he told viewers of Tesla's AI event in 2021 that this is designed to help end the labor shortage and expressed his desire for a future where "physical work will be a choice."
Optimus will use Tesla's Autopilot software connected to eight cameras feeding into its neural network.
The cost of Optimus is unknown at this time, and the same can be said for its eventual release. However, non-working replicas of the robot have been showing up at some Tesla stores and showrooms, and Musk has said he believes its price should be kept at "less than half the price of a car."
In 2022, the world caught its first glimpse of a semi-functional Optimus robot – and unlike its 2021 debut, it wasn't a person dancing in a bodysuit. This prototype was able to wave to the crowd live at the company's AI day, though it was not ready to walk unassisted. In a prerecorded video, Optimus was seen completing chores such as watering a plant and showcasing its lifting ability in a factory setting.
In 2023, Musk made waves by predicting that Optimus robots could outnumber humans one day. The update video showed marked improvements, with Optimus able to walk on its own and complete more complex tasks. Musk and Tesla went on to release further videos showing the Optimus could do yoga stretches, and a second generation of Optimus could squat, fold laundry, and even pick up an egg.
Tesla's Optimus robot is rapidly evolving, and can handle more complex tasks. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesThis Gen 2 model was 22 pounds lighter than the first generation, and 30% faster. The rapid advancements in Optimus' capabilities showed a remarkably fast evolution from a robot that could barely walk just a year prior.
Musk said in a 2024 Tesla earnings call there's a "good chance" the company would start shipping some units of Optimus in 2025. He has plans to eventually put the robot to work in Tesla's factories and to sell it to the public.
The billionaire himself said in the earnings call that he's "often optimistic," then caveated his Optimus projection by saying, "When there's a lot of uncertainty and you're in uncharted territory, it's obviously impossible to make a precise prediction. We will be updating the public with progress on Optimus every few months."
Musk Denies Report Of New Ethics Conflict In Tesla/xAI FSD Revenue-share Scheme
Tesla has considered an arrangement that would license AI models from CEO Elon Musk's AI startup, xAI, according to WSJ.
It would be the latest in a number of conflicts of interest that have cropped up related to Musk's channeling of resources from Tesla, a public company, to xAI, his own privately-held company, though Musk denied the report without reading it.
For many years now, Tesla and Musk have promised that Tesla cars would have full self-driving capability in the near future. Deadlines have been constantly pushed back, suggesting that the problem of self-driving is harder than Tesla originally thought it is. But that hasn't stopped the company's public optimism, with Musk promising just over a month ago that he would be shocked if Tesla doesn't have unsupervised full self-driving next year. Musk talks up Tesla's AI expertise Musk has also talked up Tesla's AI efforts, with the company hosting "AI Day" events in 2021 and 2022. Both events came before xAI was founded in 2023, after which Tesla has not hosted another AI Day. One of Tesla's major AI efforts has been its Dojo supercomputer, which it has claimed is one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Musk has even said that Tesla already has "baby AGI," meaning artificial general intelligence, or the hypothetical idea of a computer that is capable of doing not just a single task well, but mimicking the skills of a human across a broad array of tasks. Scientists question whether AGI is even possible, but that hasn't stopped Musk from claiming that Tesla has already achieved it. Musk also said in recent months that Tesla's leadership in FSD, AI and specifically its Optimus humanoid robot, could lead to an increase of tens of trillions of dollars in market cap for the company. All of this has led Musk to make some rather serious pronouncements, such as suggesting that if an investor doesn't think Tesla will be the company to solve autonomous driving, then they should not invest in the company, and that Tesla is worth "basically zero" without FSD. If Tesla's so good at AI, why rely on xAI? And so, given Tesla's clear AI supremacy, it seems odd that Tesla would need to lean on another company – xAI – that's just over a year old. Not only is xAI a newer player in the space, it has also relied on Tesla for many resources. Musk has already poached talent from Tesla to xAI, discussed investing $5 billion of Tesla money into xAI, and shifted priority shipments of H100 GPUs (the chips used for AI calculations) from Tesla to xAI. All of this was done despite Musk having a fiduciary duty to Tesla's shareholders, whereas his duty in xAI is primarily to himself, as the company is privately owned by him. These conflicts of interest didn't stop Musk from threatening to move AI efforts to xAI rather than Tesla if he wasn't given more ownership of Tesla (which he felt necessary after selling many of his Tesla shares to buy twitter). He made that threat in the run-up to the shareholder vote to reinstate his illegal pay package, and despite that vote passing, he has apparently not stopped shifting efforts from Tesla to xAI. The matter is currently subject to a shareholder lawsuit alleging that Musk is unduly channeling money and resources from his public company into his own private coffers. Tesla now reportedly considering sharing FSD revenue with xAI The latest move was reported over the weekend by Wall Street Journal, citing "people familiar with the matter," who say discussions have been had around licensing xAI's software for FSD, and using xAI to help develop voice assistance features for Tesla cars and for Optimus robots. In exchange for this help, xAI executives have suggested an even revenue-sharing split from Tesla's FSD. Currently, Tesla charges $8,000 for its FSD software, down from a peak of $15,000. Musk has previously said that as FSD becomes more capable, the price and value of the software will only rise, claiming that Teslas will be "appreciating assets" as a result. Revenue from FSD is currently a big chunk of Tesla's total revenue, but much of it has been deferred as the software is not yet fully capable of what has been promised. And so the FSD system (and future products like the soon-to-be-unveiled Robotaxi) comes along with a big promise of future Tesla revenue – and if a chunk of that is sent to xAI, rather than to Tesla, that would be a big hit against expected future revenues for Tesla. Musk denies WSJ's claim, without reading it For his part, Musk denied WSJ's claim, but admitted that he did so without reading the article in question. Instead, he responded to an unrelated twitter user's summary rather than the article itself, showing his disinterest in reading information on a platform that doesn't algorithmically cater exclusively sycophantic content into his feed.
Musk has previously denied other media claims that turned out to be true, such as Reuters' report that the Model 2 would be de-emphasized in favor of Robotaxi. But even within his denial, he admits that Tesla, the longtime AI/self-driving company which he claims has already achieved "baby AGI," is learning from his nascent private AI startup which does not have nearly the history with autonomy that Tesla has. This could be concerning that Tesla has had slower progress than a new startup – or could be a reflection of the fact that Musk has been channeling resources from the former to the latter. Charge your electric vehicle at home using rooftop solar panels. Find a reliable and competitively priced solar installer near you on EnergySage, for free. They have pre-vetted installers competing for your business, ensuring high-quality solutions and 20-30% savings. It's free, with no sales calls until you choose an installer. Compare personalized solar quotes online and receive guidance from unbiased Energy Advisers. Get started here. – ad* FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More. 
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